Demographic Experts Predict that the Global Human Population will Reach its Peak Sometime in the Middle of this Century

Question: Demographic experts predict that the global human population will reach its peak sometime in the middle of this century, after which it will begin to decline. Population growth is driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries. It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children. Therefore, these experts propose expanding educational and economic opportunities to women in developing countries to bring about an earlier and smaller population peak.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal, if adopted, will achieve its aim?

1. The demographic experts proposing expanding opportunities for women in developing countries made the same recommendations over twenty years ago.
2. The experts' prediction is based on realistic assessments of the educational and economic opportunities that can be made available to women in developing countries before that time.
3. Many women in industrialized countries will continue to have four or more children despite access to a variety of educational and economic opportunities.
4. The demographic experts fail to explain why an earlier and smaller population peak is preferable to a later and larger peak.
5. Expanding opportunities to women in developing countries is generally considered a positive outcome regardless of its impact on population levels.

“Demographic Experts Predict that the Global Human Population will Reach its Peak Sometime in the Middle of this Century” – is a GMAT critical reasoning topic. This GMAT Critical Reasoning topic has been taken from the book ‘ 501 GMAT Questions​’. In this particular topic, candidates are asked to select the most appropriate explanation that states the role that boldface plays. In this question, the candidates need to provide an option that supports the argument provided in the passage. GMAT critical reasoning tests the logical and analytical skills of the candidates. Critical reasoning in GMAT requires candidates to find the strengths and weaknesses of the argument, or find the logical flaw in the argument.  The GMAT CR section contains 10 -13 GMAT critical reasoning questions out of 36 GMAT verbal questions.

Answer: B
Explanation:

For weakening the argument, we can answer this GMAT critical reasoning question by either finding a piece of evidence that would weaken the argument or logical flaws in the argument. Let us check the given options that provide the strongest grounds to doubt that the experts' proposal if adopted, will achieve its aim.

We have to weaken the proposal. Something that says that expanding these opportunities will not bring about an earlier and smaller peak.

1. This option does not weaken the proposal. The proposal that was made before just shows that it makes sense.
2. The prediction is that the peak will be reached in the middle of the century. If this prediction is based on a realistic assessment of opportunities that can be made available, it is unlikely that the opportunities can be expanded faster than what has been assumed make the prediction. Hence, it is unlikely that the proposal of an earlier peak will succeed because it is not realistic. Correct.
3. The number of children is not discussed in the argument. Fewer than before is the aim. This is a given premise - "It is known that when women have access to education and economic opportunities, they choose to have fewer children."
4. This argument is irrelevant. The aim is an earlier and smaller peak. Why is the aim not relevant to our argument? Not correct
5. Though true, it doesn't weaken our proposal. It just provides all the more reasons for the implementation of the proposal.

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